TFM Morning Update 10-27-2023

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning following crude oil higher after it was reported that The US hit targets in Syria overnight in retaliation to strikes against US positions in the Middle East.
Yesterday, it was reported that 3rd quarter GDP was above analyst expectations at 4.9%, and this caused traders to get nervous about the Fed keeping interest rates high.
Corn harvest has been going at a slow pace due to rains that have been moving through the Corn Belt, and there are more rains forecast over the next 7 days.
Barge shipments down the Mississippi River have increased to 562k tons compared to 496 the previous week, but barge rates have increased over the past week as well.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning with support from both soybean meal, oil and crude oil, but overall, soybeans have been rangebound for the past week.
Crush margins remain strong for soybeans as domestic demand stays stout, and soybean meal is back near contract highs improving margins further.
Indonesia’s flag carrier Garuda tested its first commercial flight that used jet fuel mixed with palm oil which is encouraging for the outlook of soybean oil as jet fuel.
Yesterday’s export sales for soybeans were impressive at 50.6 mb for 23/24, and export shipments were well above expectations at 87.6 mb. In addition, there was a sale to China of 110,000 mt.

Wheat is lower this morning after a heavy downpour in key areas of Argentina greatly improved the conditions of their wheat crop which has been affected by drought.
Yesterday, it was reported that Ukraine’s export corridor had been temporarily closed due to worries of explosives, but ship traffic is reportedly still moving through today.
Ukrainian grain harvest is running 40% ahead of last year with 43.4 mmt of grain harvested so far, and 22.4 mmt of that being wheat. Exports remain a challenge.
India has announced that it would sell more wheat in the open market to control local prices, and is looking at amounts near 300,000 tons from state reserves.

Amanda Brill