TFM Morning Update 10-27-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading sharply higher with prices a penny off their highs from September. December is up 7 cents to $4.30-1/4 and March is up 7-1/2 cents to $4.44-1/2. The next target would be the 200-day moving average at 4.37 for December.
While traders still anticipate a very large crop to be harvested this season, export demand has been very strong, and there is a possibility that the USDA could increase demand on the balance sheet. Harvest is now past the halfway point.
With the continued government shutdown, we can only estimate fund activity. Over the past 5 days, funds are estimated to have bought back 6,000 contracts of corn and are likely buying back a significant amount today. Funds still hold a net short position.

Soybean futures are sharply higher this morning thanks to news that a Chinese trade deal is likely. November soybeans are up 23-1/2 cents to $10.65-1/4 while March is up 19-1/2 cents to $10.93-1/4. December soybean meal is up $3.70 to $297.80 and December soybean oil is up 0.50 cents to 50.77 cents.
Overnight, US Treasury Secretary Bessent told the US Sunday news programs that when China’s Xi and President Trump announced a trade deal on Thursday, US farmers would feel very good about this season and the next few years. This immediately brought prices higher.
Over the past 5 trading days, funds are estimated to have bought 11,000 contracts of soybeans which would add to their already net long position. They were net buyers of both meal and bean oil.

Wheat is significantly higher to start the day with December Chicago wheat up 13-1/2 cents to $5.26, KC wheat up 12-3/4 to $5.14-1/4, and Minn wheat up 9 cents to $5.66. Chicago wheat is nearly 35 cents off its recent low.
The IGC raised its estimate for global grain stockpiles on wheat and corn for the 25/26 season. Wheat stockpiles have been increased to 275 mmt from 270 mmt in a previous estimate.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange updated their estimates for wheat planting progress in Argentina. Production is estimated at 22.0 mmt which would compare to 18.6 mmt last year. 5.3% of the crop has been harvested at this point.

Amanda Brill