TFM Morning Update 10-28-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning but has recovered slightly from its overnight lows. The December contract is now trading below the 100-day moving average but above the 50-day. Recent support has come from strong export sales, but a large corn crop and carryout is expected to add pressure.
In Argentina, the USDA is expecting the 24/25 corn crop at 48 mmt which would be 2.5 mmt lower than the previous year. This would be a sizable crop despite a significant decrease in planted acres from last year.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of corn as of October 22. They bought back 15,489 contracts which left them net short 71,499 contracts.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning as crude oil drops sharply by over $4 per barrel following an Israeli attack on Iranian military targets and a large jump in planting progress in Brazil. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower, but bean oil is down sharply.
Over the weekend, Israel retaliated and struck Iranian military sites but spared oil production facilities. Trade had been expecting an attack on the oil sites with this escalation, so crude oil has fallen sharply today. In addition, China has vowed “countermeasures” after the US sold 2 billion dollars worth of arms to Taiwan. Both instances are unfriendly to soybeans.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds continue to sell soybeans aggressively. As of Oct 22, funds sold 39,233 contracts of soybeans which left them net short 59,574 contracts.

Wheat is mixed this morning with the Chicago contracts slightly higher, KC unchanged, and Minneapolis wheat lower. Chicago wheat closed below its 50-day moving average on Friday which was technically bearish, and rain in the forecast for HRW areas has added to pressure.
The Rosario Grain Exchange has forecast that Argentinian wheat exports could reach their second highest on record for 24/25. Exports could reach 13.3 mmt which compares to the 19.5 mmt they are expected to produce.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of 2,902 contracts of Chicago wheat which left them short 28,915 contracts. They bought back 841 contracts of KC wheat which left them short 5,647 contracts.

Amanda Brill