TFM Morning Update 10-29-2024

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning after yesterday, sharply lower crude oil prices weighed on the grain markets. December corn has remained just above the 50-day moving average which is likely acting as support.
Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released its Crop Progress report which showed that 81% of the corn crop has been harvested. This was slightly above the average trade guess and compares to 65% completion a week ago and the 5-year average of 64%.
Strong exports have kept prices supported with 2 more flash sales reported yesterday morning making the ninth consecutive day of sales, and yesterday’s export inspections were strong as well.

Soybeans are trading higher as well this morning as crude oil prices recover. November soybeans are currently 23 cents off their contract low in August, and the question is whether it will make new harvest lows. Soybean meal is trading lower while soybean oil is higher.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed that the soybean harvest is now 89% complete which is behind the average trade guess of 91%. It compares to 81% completion last week and the 5-year average of 78%.
Rainfall in Brazil continues to improve soil moisture conditions, and planting in the country is now 36.1% complete. This is not far behind last year’s progress of 37.1% at this time despite the fact that planting was slightly delayed this year due to dry weather.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with Chicago and KC leading the way higher. Crop progress numbers were supportive, but wheat is also shaking off yesterday’s sell-off caused by outside markets.
Crop Progress showed that 80% of the winter wheat crop has been planted which was behind the trade estimate and compares to the average of 84% at this time. Only 38% of the crop is rated good to excellent which is the bullish story. Trade was expecting a rating of 47%, and 56% of the crop is emerged which compares to the average of 61%.
In Southern Brazil, heavy rains may be harming the wheat crop, and many producers are trading cash at lower prices for fear that the wheat quality will continue to slip.

Amanda Brill