TFM Morning Update 10-29-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading slightly lower this morning after failing to break through technical resistance during yesterday’s session. December futures are down 3/4 cent to 431-1/4. March futures are 1-1/2 cents lower to 444-1/2.
The U.S. and Japan finalized and signed a trade agreement on Tuesday. Over the past five years, Japan has imported an average of $14.3 billion in U.S. agricultural products, with corn accounting for roughly 18% of that total.
December corn futures have gained 17 cents since October 14. Producer selling will likely continue to pressure any additional rallies.

Soybean futures have slipped lower following their impressive rally since Monday. November futures are down 6 cents to 1072-1/4. January futures are down 6-1/4 cents to 1089.
President Trump and Chinese President Xi are scheduled to meet this Thursday to discuss a potential trade deal. Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated that China is expected to resume ‘substantial’ purchases of U.S. soybeans, with the planned 100% tariff for November 1 reportedly withdrawn.
According to StoneX analyst Arlan Suderman, China may need between 5 and 10 million metric tons of soybeans to cover a supply gap before new-crop Brazilian beans become available early next year.

Wheat has followed corn and soybeans lower this morning. December Chicago wheat is down 1-1/2 cents to 527-1/2, KC is down 3/4 cent to 519-1/4, and Minn is down 1 cent to 561.
Speculative traders were estimated to have purchased around 5,500 Chicago wheat contracts Monday, reducing their net short position to below 90,000 contracts. Open interest fell by roughly 6,000 contracts, indicating potential short covering.
Argentina and Australia will soon be harvesting record wheat crops. The Argentina crop is estimated near 23 mmt compared to the USDA estimate of 19.5. The Australian crop is estimated at 38 mmt compared to USDA’s estimate of 34.5.

Matthew Lucas