TFM Morning Update 10-29-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading lower this morning following yesterday’s slight gains, and may be near a bottom. December corn is down 1/4 cent to $4.51-1/2 while March is down 1/2 cent to $4.64-1/2.
Yesterday, the EIA reported that for the week ending October 23, US ethanol production averaged 1.12 million bpd which compared to 1.09 million bpd last week and the same 1.09 m a year ago. Inventories were seen at 24.5 million barrels, down from 24.6m a week ago.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 800k and 1,600k tons for the week ending October 22, but flash sales to other countries have been soft recently.

Soybean futures are trading lower again and are now below technical support at the 100-day moving average. November soybeans are down 8-1/2 cents at $12.16 while March is down 6-3/4 cents to $12.39-1/4. December soybean meal is down $1.80 to $333.90 and soybean oil is down 0.84 cents to 64.72 cents.
Markets have been pressured from a fast-paced US harvest that is expected to produce good yields as well as Brazil’s fast planting pace, but the El Niño weather pattern could strongly reduce total yields in the future.
Strong export sales have been a bullish factor that has not translated into higher prices yet. Another export sale of 120,000 metric tons was reported to unknown destinations for the 26/27 marketing year, and China has been a reliable buyer.

Wheat is mixed this morning with December Chicago wheat up 1 cent to $6.00 even while KC is unchanged at $6.43 and Minn is down 1 cent to $6.18-3/4. Wheat has so far lost 12% of its value this month.
Yesterday, Russia announced that it would start exporting grains through the Sea of Azov again after a 3-month halt due to the Ukrainian drone campaign that was targeting vessels. At least one ship has already passed through the Strait into the Black Sea.
Estimates for this week’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 200k and 550k tons for 26/27 while exports for 27/28 are expected to be within 0 and 50k mt.

Amanda Brill