TFM Morning Update 10-30-2023

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower to begin the week, but prices remain very rangebound with the lack of fresh news.
Harvest activity was limited over the weekend with broad rains over the Midwest on Friday, rains from Oklahoma through Ohio on Sunday, and some ice and snow in areas of the northwestern Corn Belt.
The next seven days should be much drier for harvest with almost no rain forecast in the Corn Belt, allowing that work to get done.
In South America, there are big concerns over planting with northern Brazil and Argentina facing much drier than normal conditions and southern Brazil too wet. Argentina is 22% planted for corn and Brazil is 33% complete.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning but have faded from their larger gains overnight. Support has come from weekend weather and higher soybean oil.
The snow in frosts in the northwestern Corn Belt could be damaging to any soybeans left in the field with harvest incomplete, but North Dakota and Minnesota are mostly finished with soybeans.
December soybean meal is lower today but still near its contract highs. There is a 28-dollar premium from Dec to March suggesting high demand and limited on hand supplies.
In China, March soybeans on the Dalian exchange ended 1.0% higher today at the equivalent of $16.07, a new one-month high.

All three wheat contracts are trading lower this morning, but December KC wheat has made new contract lows as demand remains poor.
Russia’s Ag Ministry is now forecasting their wheat crop at 93.0 mmt which is far above the USDA’s previous guess of 85.0 mmt. Russia also continues to dominate export sales.
Ukraine’s grain exports for October are down nearly half year over year to 2.15 mmt after Russia exited the Black Sea grain deal. Ukraine has been forced to export via their own corridor.
Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials exiting a portion of their short position and buying back 12,153 contracts which reduced their net short position to 92,254 contracts.

Amanda Brill