TFM Morning Update 10-31-2023

CORN

Corn is trading unchanged this morning but near the bottom of its range with little fresh news to go on.
Crude oil is up slightly after yesterday’s selloff which could be supportive to ethanol, but ethanol margins have also been mostly rangebound.
Yesterday’s crop progress report showed corn at 71% harvested which was above the average trade guess and up from 59% a week ago.
A fire at a key Brazilian port is delaying grain shipments which have already struggled to be transported due to low water levels in Amazonian rivers.

Soybeans are mixed with the Nov contract lower, Jan slightly higher, and deferred contracts unchanged. Weather has improved slightly in South America, but in the US, poor yields are being reported in the western Plains.
Yesterday’s crop progress report said that the soybean crop was 85% harvested which was in line with trade guesses and above the 5-year average of 78%.
Brazil’s 23/24 soybean planting has reached 40% completion of the expected area, but this pace is behind last year’s 46% at this time.
With reports of poor soybean yields coming in in the US, it is possible that the USDA may reduce their production estimate of 4.104 bb. Ending stocks are already tight at 220 mb.

All three wheat contracts are trading lower this morning, but December KC has not taken out its contract low from yesterday. The lack of export demand has significantly pressured wheat prices.
The US winter wheat crop is looking promising with good weather conditions, and yesterday, the USDA said that 84% of the crop has been planted with 64% emerged, on track with its average pace. The USDA also said that 47% of the crop was rated good to excellent, up from 28% last year.
In Brazil, unfavorable weather conditions during their wheat harvest have led to quality concerns and have caused prices to move higher.
China is set to import record volumes of wheat this year due to damage to their crop, and they have been purchasing large amounts of Australian and French wheat.

Amanda Brill