TFM Morning Update 10-31-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading lower this morning after a two-week rally leading up to the Trump-China trade talks that ended up being friendly. December corn is down 2-3/4 cents to $4.27-1/2 and March is down 3 cents to $4.40-3/4.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has updated their crop estimates for Argentinian corn. Planted area is unchanged at 7.8 million hectares, and 35% of the crop has been planted which is up from 33.8% last week.
The French corn harvest has picked up pace with 82% of the crop harvested as of Monday, which was up 75% from the previous week and is faster than the 5-year average of 74% for this time of year.

Soybean futures are trading lower following two weeks of nearly all gains and the highest prices since September of 2024. November is down 1 cent to $10.90-1/2 and March is down 5 cents to $11.10-3/4. December soybean meal is down $2.30 to $313.30 and December soybean oil is down 0.34 cents to 49.31 cents.
China purchased 4 more cargoes of US soybeans following the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi. This puts the weekly total at 7 cargoes sold to China and is encouraging given that US and South American prices are close to being at parity.
The US will continue to go forward with an investigation that could open the door to new tariffs on Chinese goods despite the truce and lowering of tariffs. This decision is likely a tool to slap new tariffs on China if the deal falls through.

Wheat is trading lower this morning following yesterday’s losses, but prices are still 22 cents off their recent low. December Chicago wheat is down by 5-3/4 cents to $5.18-1/2 and KC wheat is down 7 cents to $5.06. Minn wheat is unchanged at $5.50.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange sees Argentinian planted area for wheat at 22.0 million hectares. 8.4% of the crop is reportedly harvested, which is up from 5.3% a week ago. Late season frosts may affect the wheat crop yields.
The EU has increased its production estimates for the 25/26 grains with wheat posting the larger gains. The soft wheat forecast was increased to 133.4 mmt from 132.6 mmt at last guess.

Amanda Brill