TFM Morning Update 11-02-2023


  • Corn is trading slightly higher this morning as prices remain near their lows on a lack of fresh bullish news.
  • Export sales will be released today, and the average analyst guess is between 600k tons and 1,200k tons with an average of 920k. Sales will likely be below last week.
  • Yesterday, the US Department of Energy said that ethanol stocks fell by 1.8% to 21.012m bbl, and analyst expectations were 21.402. Production was slightly higher than survey averages.
  • There is virtually no rain on the radar this morning in the Corn Belt and the 7-day forecast is very dry which should see harvest activity pick up as crops dry out.


  • Soybeans are beginning the day higher with support from both soybean meal and oil, with crude oil higher as well. Soybeans are near the top of their recent trade range.
  • Yesterday’s US crush report was friendly with 175 mb of soybeans crushed in September, 4.3% higher than the same time last year.
  • Today’s export sales report is expected to show soybean sales between 900k tons and 1,500k tons with an average of 920k. There are rumors that China is purchasing soybeans out of the PNW.
  • StoneX has raised their outlook for US corn output but has cut their estimates for soybeans, and it is possible that the USDA might lower their estimate for yields in the next WASDE report.


  • Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago and KC lower while Minneapolis is slightly higher. Both KC and Minn wheat remain near their recent lows.
  • Wheat export sales are expected to be lackluster again this week with trade expecting between 300k tons and 600k tons in sales.
  • Export demand remains a challenge for the US wheat market, and currently, US SRW prices are on par with the EU and Baltic offerings, while US HRW is $30/tonne over Germany and $50/tonne over Russia.
  • Despite Australia’s smaller than anticipated wheat crop due to drought, China has been an active buyer as it leaves US wheat as a last resort.


Amanda Brill

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