TFM Morning Update 11-03-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading slightly higher this morning. December corn is up 1/4 cent to 431-3/4 and March is up 1/2 cent to 4.44-1/4.
December corn has recorded three consecutive weekly gains, reaching its highest close since late June. Support continues to come from strong export demand and optimism surrounding U.S. – China trade talks.
The U.S. Dollar Index has risen to a three-month high. Continued strength in the U.S. dollar could begin limiting export strength.

Soybean futures are trading higher this morning expressing continued optimism regarding U.S. – China trade. November is up 8-1/4 cents to 1108 and March is up 2-1/4 cents to 1127.
Soybean futures climbed to a 15-month high on Monday amid expectations that China will resume large-scale U.S. soybean purchases following a deal between the two countries to de-escalate their trade war.
U.S. officials said last week that China would purchase tens of millions of tons of U.S. crops over the next few years as part of the trade deal. Although the commitment falls short of China’s typical U.S. soybean purchase volumes in recent years, it remains a positive development compared with the complete absence of Chinese buying from this year’s harvest.

Wheat is trading higher this morning. December Chicago wheat is up 6-1/2 cents to 540-1/4. Kansas City wheat is up 3-1/2 cents to 528. Minn wheat is up 4 cents to 557.
Over the weekend, a major Chinese grain importer reportedly inquired about U.S. wheat cargoes for shipment between December and February, following last week’s trade truce between the two countries. According to USDA data, China has not purchased U.S. wheat since early October of last year.
Elsewhere, Russian consultancy SovEcon raised its 2025 wheat production forecast to 87.8 million metric tons, citing record yields in Siberia. In Argentina, wheat output is projected at 23 million tons, matching the country’s record 2021–22 harvest.

Matthew Lucas