TFM Morning Update 11-04-2024

CORN

December corn is leading the corn market higher, as it trades near the top of its 5 1/2 cent range, and after breaking out of last week’s sideways pattern.
The corn market is experiencing less overhead resistance as harvest nears the end and hedge pressure wanes. With the US Presidential election tomorrow and November WASDE report Friday, prices could experience added volatility.
The USDA reported that in September 440 million bushels of corn were used in ethanol production, 2.7% more than September last year. Indicating that demand remains strong.
Friday the Commodity Futures Trading Commision released its Commitment of Traders report. As of Oct. 29, managed funds covered nearly 54,000 short corn futures contracts, bringing their net short corn futures position to only 17,703 contracts.

January soybeans are near the top end of their range this morning, with the overnight high just below Friday’s high. Support is coming from higher soybean meal as it rebounds from Friday’s losses, and slightly higher bean oil, which is well off its overnight highs.
With the US Presidential election tomorrow and the November WASDE on Friday, the soybean market may experience higher volatility this week with less harvest hedge pressure and traders square positions.
US soybean crush remains strong. The USDA reported total September crush totaled 186.5 million bushels. This was 6.7% higher than last year.
In Friday’s Commitment of Traders report, the CFTC showed that managed funds sold 12,652 soybean futures contracts, which increased their net short soybean position to 72,226 contracts.

The wheat complex is starting the week mixed this morning, with Chicago and Minneapolis fractionally higher and KC unchanged to marginally lower. As all three classes quietly trade inside Friday’s range.
Ukraine’s ag ministry reported that the country’s total year over year grain exports rose 56% to 14.4 million metric tons. Of that total, 7.7 mmt was wheat, 67% more than the same period last year.
Managed funds were rather quiet in the week ending Oct. 29. According to the CFTC’s Friday COT report, managed funds sold just over 2,200 Chicago wheat futures contracts. This brought their total Chicago wheat net short to just over 31,000 contracts.

Scott Masters