TFM Morning Update 11-04-2026

CORN

Corn futures are facing additional pressure today. December corn is 1-1/2 cents lower at $4.41, while March corn is 1-3/4 cents lower at $4.54-1/2.
Export demand has offered some support to the corn market. USDA reported sales of 315,000 MT to Mexico and 136,000 MT to South Korea for 2026/27, following Monday’s 1.73 MMT sale to Mexico across the 2026/27 and 2027/28 marketing years.
However, weekly U.S. corn export inspections totaled 884,766 MT for the week ending October 29, up 38.6% from the previous week but down 48.3% from a year ago, keeping concerns around the overall pace of shipments in focus.

Soybean futures are trading lower this morning as attention shifts toward South American production prospects. January soybeans are 9-1/4 cents lower at $12.04-3/4, while March soybeans are 8-1/2 cents lower at $12.12-1/4.
Competition from Brazil added pressure to the soybean market, as a weaker Brazilian real made exports more competitive. Meanwhile, planting of the 2026/27 soybean crop reached 53% of the projected area, six percentage points ahead of last year’s pace.
Demand concerns also increased as China’s commercial soybean oil inventories climbed to nearly 1.5 MMT, up 4.3% from a year ago, as strong crushing activity continued to outpace sluggish consumption.

The wheat complex is mixed but mostly higher. Looking at December contracts, Chicago wheat is 3/4 cent higher at $6.00-1/2, Kansas City wheat is 3-3/4 cents higher at $6.40, and Minneapolis spring wheat is 1/2 cent lower at $6.19.
USDA estimated that 83% of the U.S. winter wheat crop was planted as of November 1, up 7 percentage points from the previous week but 1 point behind the five-year average. Emergence reached 65%, in line with the average, while 44% of the crop was rated in good-to-excellent condition.
Trilateral peace talks between the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine are scheduled for November 10–11 in Abu Dhabi. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has supported discussions around a Black Sea truce and an energy ceasefire, and the potential for de-escalation may be adding pressure to the wheat market.

Matthew Lucas