TFM Morning Update 11-05-2024

CORN

Corn futures are mixed this morning with the three front months trading slightly higher but deferred contracts lower. Trade may be quiet today as traders await election results.
The corn market is experiencing a less overhead resistance as harvest nears the end and hedge pressure wanes. With the US Presidential election today and November WASDE report Friday, prices could experience added volatility.
Yesterday, the USDA released its Crop Progress report which showed that the corn harvest was 91% complete as of November 3. This compares to 81% last week and the 5-year average of 75% for this time of year.

Soybeans are trading slightly higher this morning but are also relatively quiet along with corn. Yesterday, prices were significantly higher in the morning but faded into the end of the day leaving only slight gains. Soybeans have had a difficult time sustaining most sharp rallies.
This morning, the soy products are bucking their typical trend with soybean meal slightly higher and soybean oil lower. Crush demand has been very strong for soybean oil which has left a supply glut of meal.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed that 94% of the soybean crop has been harvested which compares to 89% last week and the average of 85% this time of year.

All three wheat classes are trading higher today with KC leading the way higher. Wheat has been relatively rangebound with bullish news coming from global weather issues but poor exports in the US adding downward pressure. Rain in the forecast for winter wheat areas could add pressure this week.
Ukraine’s ag ministry reported that the country’s total year over year grain exports rose 56% to 14.4 million metric tons. Of that total, 7.7 mmt was wheat, 67% more than the same period last year.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed winter wheat plantings at 87% complete which compares to the average of 89%. 66% of the crop is emerged which compares to the average of 71%, and 41% is rated good to excellent which compares to 50% a year ago.

Amanda Brill