TFM Morning Update 11-05-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading higher this morning as bargain buying emerges following recent weakness. December corn is 2-3/4 cents higher at $4.47, while March corn is also 2-3/4 cents higher at $4.61.
Ethanol production increased to 336 million gallons last week, up 7 million gallons from the previous week. An estimated 112 mb of corn was used for ethanol production, keeping corn usage on a strong pace and slightly ahead of the rate needed to reach USDA’s current target.
StoneX raised its U.S. corn yield estimate ahead of next week’s WASDE report to 183.1 bpa, with production projected at 16.203 bb. Both estimates are above USDA’s current projections, adding to expectations for a larger U.S. crop.

Soybean futures are trading higher this morning after testing support near the psychological $12 level. January soybeans are 3-1/2 cents higher at $12.05-3/4, while March soybeans are 3 cents higher at $12.13-1/4.
StoneX raised its 2026 U.S. soybean yield estimate to 55.0 bpa from 54.1 bpa in October, while increasing production to 4.725 bb from 4.648 bb. USDA will release updated estimates in next Tuesday’s WASDE report on November 10.
Brazilian planting of the 2026/27 soybean crop reached 53% of the projected area, six percentage points ahead of last year’s pace. The faster planting pace continues to weigh on the market as attention shifts toward South American production prospects.

The wheat complex is trading higher this morning. Looking at December contracts, Chicago wheat is 5 cents higher at $6.03-1/2, Kansas City wheat is 6-1/2 cents higher at $6.39-1/4, and Minneapolis spring wheat is 3-1/4 cents higher at $6.20.
Black Sea disruptions earlier this year pushed wheat prices sharply higher, but alternative export routes have helped prevent the supply shortages many traders initially feared. Ukraine’s grain shipments for export rose 26% month over month in October to 1.08 MMT, according to state railway operator Ukrzaliznytsia.
Both Russia and Ukraine have increased grain shipments through alternative export routes and confirmed participation in U.S.-mediated peace talks in Abu Dhabi on November 10–11. The talks could revive discussions around a Black Sea ceasefire and improved shipping access, potentially adding pressure to wheat prices.

Matthew Lucas