TFM Morning Update 11-06-2025

CORN

Corn futures have started Thursday lower. December futures have lost 1-1/2 cents to trade at 433-3/4. March futures have lost 1-1/4 cents to 448-1/4.
EIA reported ethanol production at a record 1.123 million barrels per day, up 32,000 bpd from the previous week. Stocks rose by 288,000 barrels to 22.655 million as of October 31. Meanwhile, ethanol exports declined by 68,000 bpd to 107,000 bpd, and refiner inputs edged down 7,000 bpd to 904,000 bpd.
The U.S. dollar index briefly reached its highest level since May before retreating after encountering resistance. A softer dollar trend could lend additional support to U.S. export competitiveness and bolster commodity prices.

Soybean futures are trading lower this morning. January futures are trading 8-1/4 cents lower at 1126. March futures have lost 7 cents, trading at 1135.
China announced on Wednesday that it will suspend retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports, including duties on agricultural products, following last week’s meeting between the two nations’ leaders. However, U.S. soybean imports will continue to face a 13% tariff.
The suspension of the USDA’s flash export sales reports amid the ongoing government shutdown has made it more difficult for market participants to verify any potential sales to China.

Wheat futures have started the day lower. December Chicago wheat futures are 6-1/2 cents lower to 548-1/2. December Kansas City wheat is trading 7-1/2 cents lower to 532-1/2. MIAX wheat has lost 1 cent, now trading at 555.
The Russian government is reportedly considering nearly doubling its grain export quota to 20 million metric tons for the second half of the marketing season, running from February 15 to June 30, 2026, according to a draft document released by the Russian Grain Union lobby group on Wednesday.
U.S. wheat export prices have risen above those of Russian and French origins, driven by the recent strength in the U.S. dollar. Continued strength in the dollar could temper the recent rally in the wheat market.

Matthew Lucas