TFM Morning Update 11-07-2024

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning following up on yesterday’s strength. Futures broke to the upside and will likely meet their next resistance level around $4.35 in December. Yesterday, funds were estimated to have bought back 18,000 contracts which would give them a net long position.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn in a range between 1,700k and 2,500k tons with an average guess of 2,120k tons. This would be slightly below last week’s sales, but exports have been very strong ahead of anticipated tariffs.
Estimates for Friday’s WASDE report see corn-ending stocks falling slightly from the previous estimate to 1,936 mb. Corn yield estimates are expected to be unchanged at 183.8 bpa. World ending stocks are also expected to be revised slightly lower.

Soybeans are trading higher again today after a sharp sell-off yesterday morning that then saw prices rebound. While the prospect of new Trump tariffs is bearish, countries will likely continue to stock up on grains until he takes office next year.
Estimates for today’s export sales report sees soybean sales between 1,200k and 2,200k tons with an average guess of 1,766k tons which would be slightly below last week’s sales.
Estimates for Friday’s WASDE report see soybean ending stocks falling by 15 mb to 535 mb and the average soybean yield falling to 52.9 bpa from 53.1 bpa in last months estimate. World ending stocks are expected to be slightly lowered.

All three wheat classes are trading slightly higher this morning with Chicago wheat leading the way. Futures are likely following corn and soybeans as rainfall over US winter wheat areas has improved and may pressure prices.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales between 250k and 650k tons with an average guess of 455k tons. This would be slightly above last week’s sales.
Estimates for Friday’s WASDE report see wheat US ending stocks rising slightly to 813 mb and world ending stocks falling slightly from last month’s estimate.

Amanda Brill