TFM Morning Update 11-08-2023

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning as the entire grain complex bounces back from yesterday’s selloff. The move higher comes even as crude oil is lower this morning.
Yesterday, open interest in corn futures jumped to the largest levels in almost two years which could indicate that the non-commercials are growing their net short position.
Estimates for ethanol production are being called higher than last week by analysts at 1.058m b/d with the stockpile expected to grow to around 21.222m bbl.
Yesterday, the USDA released their long-term baseline projections and estimated that the 24/25 corn crop will have 91 million acres of corn with 181 bpa.

Soybeans are sharply higher again this morning and have more than made up for yesterday’s losses taking out the high from yesterday with support from both soybean meal and oil.
Soybean oil is only slightly higher as it is being held back by lower crude oil, but soybean meal continues its rally making a new contract high thanks to very strong export demand.
In the driest areas of Brazil, some scattered showers are expected this week, but the most recent forecast significantly cut the chances of further showers in the following week.
Yesterday, China made the largest single day US soybean purchase in over three months in the amount of 10 cargoes or 600,000 metric tons for shipment out of the Gulf.

Wheat is trading higher this morning and has made back yesterday’s losses. Despite the sharp selloff in corn yesterday, wheat managed to stay above its recent lows.
Argentina is now set to produce just 14.5 mmt of wheat for 23/24, a 2 mmt decline from previous estimates due to extremely dry conditions.
In France, heavy rainfall over the past two weeks has brought grain sowing to a near halt, and lower wheat yields are now expected in some growing regions.
Although focus has largely shifted away from the Russian/Ukrainian war and towards the Middle East, exports from Ukraine between July 1 and November 6 have fallen from 14.3 mmt last year to 9.8 mmt this year.

Amanda Brill