TFM Morning Update 11-08-2023


  • Corn is trading higher this morning as the entire grain complex bounces back from yesterday’s selloff. The move higher comes even as crude oil is lower this morning.
  • Yesterday, open interest in corn futures jumped to the largest levels in almost two years which could indicate that the non-commercials are growing their net short position.
  • Estimates for ethanol production are being called higher than last week by analysts at 1.058m b/d with the stockpile expected to grow to around 21.222m bbl.
  • Yesterday, the USDA released their long-term baseline projections and estimated that the 24/25 corn crop will have 91 million acres of corn with 181 bpa.


  • Soybeans are sharply higher again this morning and have more than made up for yesterday’s losses taking out the high from yesterday with support from both soybean meal and oil.
  • Soybean oil is only slightly higher as it is being held back by lower crude oil, but soybean meal continues its rally making a new contract high thanks to very strong export demand.
  • In the driest areas of Brazil, some scattered showers are expected this week, but the most recent forecast significantly cut the chances of further showers in the following week.
  • Yesterday, China made the largest single day US soybean purchase in over three months in the amount of 10 cargoes or 600,000 metric tons for shipment out of the Gulf.


  • Wheat is trading higher this morning and has made back yesterday’s losses. Despite the sharp selloff in corn yesterday, wheat managed to stay above its recent lows.
  • Argentina is now set to produce just 14.5 mmt of wheat for 23/24, a 2 mmt decline from previous estimates due to extremely dry conditions.
  • In France, heavy rainfall over the past two weeks has brought grain sowing to a near halt, and lower wheat yields are now expected in some growing regions.
  • Although focus has largely shifted away from the Russian/Ukrainian war and towards the Middle East, exports from Ukraine between July 1 and November 6 have fallen from 14.3 mmt last year to 9.8 mmt this year.


Amanda Brill

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