TFM Morning Update 11-11-2024

CORN

Corn futures are trading lower this morning and have faded from slightly higher prices overnight. December corn gained over 16 cents last week as a result of very strong export demand and a reduction in the national yield estimate by the USDA.
Friday’s WASDE report was surprising showing a decrease in the corn yield to 183.1 bpa from 183.7 bpa the previous month. Many analysts had thought that the yield would be unchanged. Ending stocks of 1.938 bb were slightly higher than the average trade guess which may have limited gains.
Friday’s CFTC report showed that funds bought 39,746 contracts of corn as of November 15 which left them with a net long position of 22,043 contracts. This is the first time funds have held a net long position since August 2023.

Soybeans are mixed this morning with the front months higher but bull spread as November 2025 trades slightly lower and the majority of gains remain in the front month. Soybean meal is breaking its recent trend by trading higher this morning while soybean oil is lower.
The USDA report on Friday was bullish with the national yield estimate being sharply lowered to 51.7 bpa from 53.1 bpa last month. Trade was expecting a lower yield number but not such a large drop. Ending stocks fell by 80 mb which was friendly as well.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back just 2,114 contracts as of Nov 5 which left them net short 70,112 contracts. It is estimated that funds have bought back and additional 28,000 contracts since Nov 5.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with Chicago wheat leading the way lower after rainfall totals in important HRW acres were better than expected.
Wheat production seems to be struggling globally as StoneX has just revised their estimate for the Brazilian wheat crop to 7.5 mmt from 7.9 mmt the previous month. The Russian wheat crop is expected to be smaller as well, and wheat conditions in the US are poor.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back just 391 contracts of Chicago wheat which left them net short 30,781 contracts. They sold 4,920 contracts of KC wheat which left them net short 14,080 contracts as of Nov 5.

Amanda Brill