TFM Morning Update 11-15-2023

CORN

Corn is trading near unchanged this morning with underlying support from higher trade in both soybeans and wheat.
A prominent Brazilian crop analyst lowered his Brazil corn production total to 121 million tons this week, this compares to the USDA’s November estimate at 129 million tons.
The US weather outlook looks mostly favorable for harvest and fall field work conditions for the rest of this week before a system is expected this weekend and into early next week.
Private exporters announced the sale of 4 million bushels of corn for delivery to Mexico during the current marketing year yesterday, this was following Monday’s announced sale of 5.7 million bushels of Mexico.

Soybeans are higher this morning leading the gains in the grain complex, soybean meal and oil are also higher.
A large part of this rally has been due to South American weather, the afternoon weather model run yesterday backed off on rain totals and continued with a warmer than normal bias for currently stressed west and central regions of Brazil into the end of November.
NOPA soybean crush data set to be released later today is expected to show October’s US soybean crush at an all-time high of 187.237 million bushels. If realized this crush number would be up 13.2% from September and surpass the previous all-time monthly record crush of 186.438 million bushels set in December 2021.
Though showing no sign of the resistance this morning, front month continuous soybean futures closed yesterday right at the 200-day moving average. Front month soybeans have not closed above the 200-day since April 20th.

Wheat is trading slightly higher this morning after yesterday’s massive break lower in the US dollar index.
The US dollar index posted it’s largest daily loss in nearly a year yesterday as US CPI data showed that underlying inflation slowed in October, increasing the odds that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates.
The European Union’s soft-wheat exports since July 1st are down nearly 3 million tons compared to the same period last year.
Beneficial rains for the US southern Plains are expected early next week, while amounts do not look heavy this should be a good boost to the recently planted wheat ahead of winter dormancy.

Keegan Madigan