TFM Morning Update 11-15-2023


  • Corn is trading near unchanged this morning with underlying support from higher trade in both soybeans and wheat.
  • A prominent Brazilian crop analyst lowered his Brazil corn production total to 121 million tons this week, this compares to the USDA’s November estimate at 129 million tons.
  • The US weather outlook looks mostly favorable for harvest and fall field work conditions for the rest of this week before a system is expected this weekend and into early next week.
  • Private exporters announced the sale of 4 million bushels of corn for delivery to Mexico during the current marketing year yesterday, this was following Monday’s announced sale of 5.7 million bushels of Mexico.


  • Soybeans are higher this morning leading the gains in the grain complex, soybean meal and oil are also higher.
  • A large part of this rally has been due to South American weather, the afternoon weather model run yesterday backed off on rain totals and continued with a warmer than normal bias for currently stressed west and central regions of Brazil into the end of November.
  • NOPA soybean crush data set to be released later today is expected to show October’s US soybean crush at an all-time high of 187.237 million bushels. If realized this crush number would be up 13.2% from September and surpass the previous all-time monthly record crush of 186.438 million bushels set in December 2021.
  • Though showing no sign of the resistance this morning, front month continuous soybean futures closed yesterday right at the 200-day moving average. Front month soybeans have not closed above the 200-day since April 20th.


  • Wheat is trading slightly higher this morning after yesterday’s massive break lower in the US dollar index.
  • The US dollar index posted it’s largest daily loss in nearly a year yesterday as US CPI data showed that underlying inflation slowed in October, increasing the odds that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates.
  • The European Union’s soft-wheat exports since July 1st are down nearly 3 million tons compared to the same period last year.
  • Beneficial rains for the US southern Plains are expected early next week, while amounts do not look heavy this should be a good boost to the recently planted wheat ahead of winter dormancy.


Keegan Madigan

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