TFM Morning Update 11-16-2023

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower this morning with pressure from lower soybeans, rain in the Brazilian forecast, and large domestic supplies.
U.S. harvest conditions have been favorable and the work is about wrapped up. Despite the lack of rain this growing season, harvest is estimated to bring a record 15.234 billion bushels of new corn.
U.S. ethanol stocks were unchanged at 21m bbl, below analyst expectations of 21.353. Plant production was at 1.047m b/d, slightly below the trade guess.
Export sales of corn will be released today, and the trade range is between 900k and 1,700k tons with an average guess of 1,203k tons.

Soybeans are lower this morning following changes in the Brazilian forecast and after Biden’s meeting with Chinese President Xi. Both soybean meal and oil are lower.
Soybeans have owed a large portion of their rally to dry South American weather, so now that rain is expected from Sunday to the end of November or longer, prices have retreated.
Yesterday’s NOPA report showed a record 187.237 mb of soybeans crushed in October, an all-time high for any month and above analyst expectations.
Export sales for soybeans will also be released today and the trade range is between 2,900k and 4,500k tons with an average of 3,431k following a slew of sales to China.

Wheat is lower again this morning remaining near its recent lows with Chicago wheat posting the bulk of the losses as poor export demand keeps prices down.
U.S. wheat exports are at a 52-year low, and even Europe is struggling to export their wheat due to the availability of extremely cheap Russian offers.
Today’s export sales report is expected to show another low number for wheat with the trade range between 250k and 500k tons with the average guess at 355k.
While Australia’s wheat crop has struggled with hot and dry conditions, harvest has been ahead of pace with yields so far coming in better than expected, but still more than a third below last year.

Amanda Brill