TFM Morning Update 11-17-2023


  • Corn is trading slightly lower to begin the day as it remains in its trading range of $4.61 and $4.80 in December. The incoming large supplies of corn have pressured prices.
  • Yesterday, corn and soybeans were pulled lower by a new forecast for Brazil that featured better chances for rain through Thanksgiving, but corn managed to end the day higher.
  • World grain stockpiles at the end of the 23/24 season are now called higher at 585 mmt due to an increase in corn stockpiles to 285 mmt from 283 mmt.
  • U.S. corn consumption for ethanol has been strong and has kept prices from slipping lower. Ethanol margins have risen to an average of $1.19 per gallon, a favorable price for processors.


  • Soybeans are trading lower after yesterday’s bearish Brazilian weather forecast while soybean meal is lower and oil is higher. Export sales yesterday were a marketing year high.
  • While soybeans previously benefitted from a hot and dry South American forecast, the inclusion of better chances for rain in the driest areas of Brazil over the next two weeks caused prices to sell off sharply yesterday. After Thanksgiving, weather is expected to turn dry again.
  • Yesterday, the USDA reported 144 mb of soybean sales for last week plus a new sale of 8.1 mb to unknown destinations. China has been the largest buyer over the past few weeks.
  • Argentinian farmers are intending to increase their planted soy acreage this season after the drought damaged some of their early corn. They are increasing acres by nearly 500,000.


  • All three wheat contracts are lower this morning with KC posting the most losses and a new contract low. Despite the low prices, Russian wheat remains at a discount.
  • Export sales were poor again yesterday at just 6.5 mb for last week, and now near the halfway point of the season, only 267 mb of wheat have shipped, 20% less than a year ago at this time.
  • On the heels of last year’s extreme drought in Argentina, more dry conditions this season have limited the wheat crop to 15.0 mmt which would be the second smallest crop in eight years.
  • Western Australia’s wheat outlook has been cut as well due to hot and dry weather with the new estimate down to 7.85 mmt from October’s guess of 8.13 mmt.


Amanda Brill

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