TFM Morning Update 11-19-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading slightly lower this morning. December futures are 1 cent lower to 435-3/4. March futures have also lost 1 cent to 448-1/2.
The EIA reported record-high ethanol production last month at 1.123 million barrels per day. Output has since eased, but analysts still expect ethanol demand to use more corn than in previous years.
The U.S. corn harvest is nearing completion. As of the November 16 USDA Crop Progress report, harvest was 91% finished, slightly below the five-year average.

Soybean futures are trading lower following their recent strength. January futures are trading 7 cents lower to 1146-1/2. March futures are trading 6-1/2 cents lower to 1153-3/4.
The USDA confirmed that China purchased 792,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans. Earlier on Monday, Reuters reported that China’s state-owned grain trader COFCO bought approximately 840,000 metric tons for December and January shipment.
Meanwhile, a cargo of Argentine soybean meal has cleared Chinese customs, according to two China-based traders. This marks the first shipment to do so since Beijing approved such imports in 2019 and signals the opening of a new trade channel with the world’s largest soymeal exporter.

The wheat complex has started the day in mixed fashion. December Chicago wheat is up 1-1/2 cents to 548, Kansas City wheat is up 1/4 cent to 526-1/2, and Minn wheat has lost 2 cents to 580.
In its first update since the government shutdown, the USDA’s crop progress report showed winter wheat planting at 92% complete as of Sunday, compared with 94% a year ago and a 95% five-year average. Emergence reached 79%, while condition ratings came in at 45% good to excellent, down from 49% at the same time last year.
CONAB’s latest report estimates Brazil’s wheat production at 7.7 mmt for the current season, down 2.6% from 2024. However, larger beginning stocks and ongoing imports have lifted total domestic availability to 15.8 mmt, roughly 3.5% above year-ago levels.

Matthew Lucas