TFM Morning Update 11-20-2023 - Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower this morning as small amounts of rain begin to fall in Brazil, but planting there remains well behind schedule for soybeans which will impact safrinha corn.
With soybean planting in Brazil delayed and some needing to be replanted, the timing for corn planting is becoming a concern, and there have been reports that some seed orders were cancelled altogether.
Corn prices continue to rise in Brazil due to a lack of farmer selling and worries about the delayed planting, and this could translate to higher corn prices in the U.S.
Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials buying back 5,102 contracts of corn as of November 14 which decreased their short position to 163,486 contracts.

Soybeans opened lower last night due to volatility from the Presidential election in Argentina, but are currently trading higher now that the results have been confirmed.
Javier Milei won the election in Argentina which is seen as bearish for commodities as he may work with grain and livestock producers there to eliminate agricultural taxes and caps that would make it easier for the country to export.
In the driest areas of Brazil, there have been many reports of farmers being forced to abandon their soybeans in favor of planting cotton or another crop in Mato Grosso.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as net buyers of soybeans increasing their net long position by 19,315 contracts to 87,913 contracts.

All three wheat contracts are lower again this morning with Chicago trading near its recent lows and KC making new contract lows on a lack of export strength.
The continued bearish pressure on wheat has been the dismal U.S. export demand and the availability of extremely cheap Russian wheat offers.
Ukraine can potentially harvest between 18 and 20 mmt of winter wheat in 2024 as farmers have now planted approximately 9.9 million acres.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back wheat for the second week in a row, this time buying 2,951 contracts and reducing their net short position to 89,311 contracts.

Amanda Brill