TFM Morning Update 11-20-2024

CORN

Corn is lower this morning in sympathy with lower soybeans and wheat, in a tight 2 3/4 cent range, with little fresh news in the market.
Weekly ethanol data will be out later today from the EIA. Traders anticipate lower production at 1.1 million barrels/day for the week ending Nov. 15, with stocks rising to 22.206 million barrels.
Managed fund activity was on the light side yesterday, as they sold an estimated 2,000 corn futures contracts, bringing their estimated net long position to 111,000 contracts.

Soybeans are lower again this morning as technical weakness adds pressure to the market after prices failed to hold above the 50-day moving average in yesterday’s trade.
Both products are also lower, with soybean oil now trading below yesterday’s lows and recent 44.50 support, which is adding to the weakness in soybeans.
Brazilian trade group Abiove, estimates Brazil’s 24/25 soybean production at a record 167.7 mmt versus 153.3 mmt last year, and the USDA’s 169 mmt. Exports are seen rising to 104.1 mmt from last year’s 98.3 and the USDA’s 105 mmt.
Managed funds were moderate sellers in yesterday’s trade, selling an estimated 4,000 contracts of soybeans, which brought their estimated net short soybean position to 58,000 contracts.

All three wheat classes are lower this morning and near session lows, as traders press the market following yesterday’s relatively weak close.
Adding to the weak tone are rumors of potential peace talks between the West, Russia, and Ukraine. This follows reports of Ukraine using US made long-range missiles to attack targets in Russian territory over the weekend.
US winter wheat crop ratings that are the highest in years following recent rains is adding overhead resistance to prices, along with higher Argentine and Australian wheat exports.
Managed funds were rather quiet in the wheat market yesterday, buying an estimated 1,000 Chicago wheat futures contracts. This brought their estimated net short in Chicago wheat to 44,000 contracts. Overall, managed funds are estimated to hold a record short totaling 200,000 contracts across all three wheat classes.

Scott Masters