TFM Morning Update 11-21-2023

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning while remaining rangebound between $4.75 and $4.95 in the March contract.
Crop progress was released yesterday afternoon and showed the corn harvest at 93% complete which was below expectations by 2 points but up from 88% last week.
Export demand is firm with export inspections up more than 50 mb from last year and total sales and shipments up more than 250 mb from last year. Mexico has been a main buyer.
While South America has received some scattered showers, the total moisture amounts are now showing less rain this week and drier conditions over the 8 to 14 day forecast.

Soybeans are moving higher again this morning on the heels of yesterday’s bullish key reversal and are trading comfortably above the 100-day moving average.
Soybean meal is trading higher and is nearing its contract highs from last Wednesday while soybean oil trades lower with lower palm and crude oil.
Traders have been extremely focused on Brazilian weather and last week’s forecast gave the impression that the driest areas would receive significant moisture, but this has not been the case, and the top agricultural state of Mato Grosso has stayed very dry.
Brazilian soybean planting for 23/24 is now 68% complete as of November 16 and has advanced just 7 points from the previous week. It is way below the pace of 80% from last year.

All three wheat contracts are trading slightly higher this morning with support from both corn and soybeans. Yesterday, KC wheat managed to not take out its contract low.
Yesterday’s crop progress report showed winter wheat plantings at 95% complete, emergence at 87% compared to 86% a year ago, and the good to excellent rating at 48% rising a point from last week.
Yesterday’s export inspections of 13.2 mb were better than the previous weeks, but exports are still over 90 mb behind last year.
Ukraine is expecting their winter wheat harvest between 18 and 20 mmt for 2024 with planting on par with the previous year.

Amanda Brill