TFM Morning Update 11-22-2023

CORN

Corn is mixed this morning with the two front months Dec and March slightly higher and the deferred months slightly lower in more quiet trade ahead of Thanksgiving.
Barchart has updated its expected corn yield for 2023 and it is no above the USDA’s guess at 183.78 bpa while the USDA’s estimate is much more modest at 174.9 bpa.
In Brazil, the largest fuel distributor, Vibra Energia, is trying to bring corn ethanol use to northern Brazil and is expanding its sales to parts of the country that almost exclusively use gasoline.
First notice day for Dec corn is on the 30th and as a result, many traders are beginning to roll into the March contract which has pressured the spreads.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning after strong gains the two previous days. Traders are assessing the rain totals that have fallen in Brazil over the past week, but it does not seem as much as expected.
Lower prices today follow an updated forecast for Brazil that shows better chances for rain over the next 7-days that include the driest regions in central Brazil.
Barchart updated yield estimates for both corn and soybeans today with both revised higher and soybeans now pegged at 52.0 bpa compared with the USDA estimate of 49.9 bpa.
Indonesia is planning on capping its limit of palm oil in biofuels to 40% to ensure enough supplies for exports and local markets.

All three wheat contracts are higher this morning for what would make the second consecutively higher close as funds begin to short cover with prices near contract lows.
Overnight, there were reports of new Russian attacks on the Ukrainian port of Odesa which may be offering support to prices.
The UN World Food Programme has warned that Ukraine could fail to meet future domestic and export wheat demand if Russia’s attacks continue.
The EU’s soft wheat exports have fallen by 19% year over year to just 11.6 mmt as of November 19 which compares with 14.3 mmt the previous year.

Amanda Brill