TFM Morning Update 11-25-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning and is likely being pulled down by lower wheat prices. There has not been much fresh news recently, but this week, export inspections, ethanol grind, and export sales will be released. The markets will be closed on Thanksgiving.
In Ukraine, this year’s corn harvest has fallen by 5% year over year to 23.6 mmt so far. This is down from 24.9 mmt at the same time last year. The wheat harvest is on par with last year and only corn is affected.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of corn but slowing down a bit. They bought 4,639 contracts of corn which increased their net long position to 114,628 contracts, the highest level since March 2023.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning thanks to support from both soybean meal and oil after a recovery in palm oil. Soybean futures are very oversold and could see renewed demand at this cheap prices.
In Brazil, the 24/25 soybean planting has hit 86% of expected areas as of last Thursday which compares to 74% last year at this time. Weather has remained favorable with scattered showers across the country.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of soybeans. They sold an additional 13,165 contracts which increased their net short position to 67,701 contracts.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning as wheat leads the grain complex lower. A lack of escalation of the war between Russia and Ukraine over the weekend may be pressuring prices along with improved winter wheat conditions in the US.
Russia’s deputy prime minister has estimated that the country’s current marketing year grain exports are between 55 to 60 mmt compared to last year’s 72 mmt. Total Russian wheat production is estimated at 83 mmt.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of Chicago wheat by 6,239 contracts which increased their net short position to 51,546 contracts. They sold 4,277 contracts of KC wheat which increased that net short position to 29,375 contracts.

Amanda Brill