TFM Morning Update 11-28-2023

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher this morning as prices generally rebound from yesterday’s selloff in which corn made new contract lows in the March contract.
With U.S. corn being the cheapest feed grain in the world right now, exports have picked up and yesterday’s inspections put total inspections 25% higher than a year ago.
Argentinian corn is now 26% planted and now that weather has turned more favorable, a large crop is expected, but producers will likely hold off on sales until the President elect officially lowers export taxes.
Friday’s CFTC data showed non-commercials selling 22,106 contracts of corn which increased their net short position to 185,502 contracts, the largest short position in over a year.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning in an attempt to shake off yesterday’s losses and move back to the upper end of the trading range. Both soybean meal and oil are higher.
The U.S. is still expected to have very tight ending stocks for 23/24 and demand has been firm which has kept soybeans from selling off as much as corn and wheat have.
While moisture has improved slightly in central and northern Brazil over the past week, December is forecast to turn drier. Despite this, average trade guesses for Brazil’s soy crop are around 160 mmt.
Friday’s CFTC data showed non-commercials as sellers of 18,865 contracts of soybeans which decreased their net long position to 108,176 contracts.

Wheat is trading slightly higher this morning after Chicago, KC, and Minn wheat all made new contract lows yesterday due to lack of export demand.
Total U.S. wheat export sales are down 9% from this time a year ago and shipments are down even more by 18%. For KC wheat, sales have slipped even more as the U.S. struggles to compete with Russia.
A storm in the Black Sea region has halted loadings of crude and grains from key ports in Russia and Ukraine and left more than a million people in the area without power.
In Friday’s CFTC report it was shown that non-commercials continued to sell wheat by 18,865 contracts increasing their net short position to 108,176 contracts.

Amanda Brill