TFM Morning Update 11-29-2024

HAPPY THANKSGIVING FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING!

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 28: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 29: The CME closes at noon, and Total Farm Marketing closes at 1:00 p.m. (CST).

CORN

Corn futures are not yet trading due to the Thanksgiving holiday, but export sales will be released soon after and will likely drive prices. Today is first notice day for the December contract and there were 111 deliveries total.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 31 and 79 million bushels, and total export sales and shipments are currently at 53.7% of the total USDA export estimate just 11 weeks into the new marketing year. This pace is 10 points ahead of the average sales pace.
US ethanol stocks rose by 1.4% to 22.869m bbl which compared to analyst expectations of 22.745m bbl. Plant production was at 1.119m b/d which compared to the average guess of 1.102m.

The soybean market will open at 8:30 central time today, but soybeans ended the day higher on Wednesday for the second consecutive day of gains as they find support near contract lows. Soybean meal was supportive on Wednesday while soybean oil was sharply lower.
The USDA will release its monthly fats and oils report at 2pm, and soybean crush for the month of October is expected to have jumped to a record high 210.9 million bushels. If realized, it would compare to last month’s 201.4 mb.
Estimates for soybean sales in today’s export sales report are in a range between 1,500k tons and 2,400k tons which would be a large number supported by many recent flash sales.

Winter wheat futures closed lower on Wednesday but did not the March Chicago wheat did not take out its contracts lows. Strong winter wheat conditions going into winter dormancy in the US continue to weigh on wheat futures.
EU wheat exports are said to be down 30% year on year, after a disappointing harvest this year, which could be a bullish factor. Additionally, Black Sea tensions may keep wheat prices supported over the summer lows.
Estimates f0r today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 200k and 600k tons.

Amanda Brill