TFM Morning Update 11-30-2023

CORN

Corn is mixed this morning with the front month slightly higher but deferred contracts unchanged to slightly lower in quiet trade.
Estimates for today’s export sales report have corn sales between 600k and 1,300k tons with an average guess of 1,030k tons.
According to the U.S. Department of Energy’s weekly report, ethanol stocks fell by 1.3% to 21.379m bbl and analysts were expecting 21.575. Plant production was slightly lower than the average guess.
U.S. corn ending stocks are being estimated at a 5-year high of 2.16 billion bushels with total production pegged at 15.23 bb. These large supplies are pressuring prices.

Soybeans are trading unchanged to slightly lower this morning as they stay between their recent range of 13.45 and 14.00 in the March contract. Soybean meal is higher while bean oil is lower.
Today’s export sales report is expected to be strong for soybeans with the trade range between 850k tons and 1,500k tons. The average guess is at 1,110k.
With corn and wheat selling off recently to new contract lows, soybeans have been supported due to very tight ending stocks and a growing market for renewable diesel and good domestic crush demand.
The bearish factor may be improving weather conditions in both Argentina and Brazil. Both countries are expected to produce large crops despite drought to start the planting season.

All three wheat classes are trading slightly lower this morning after yesterday’s surprising rally that was likely led by short covering into the end of the month.
Yesterday, the CME announced 100 deliveries of December KC wheat and 1,347 deliveries of December Chicago wheat. No deliveries were reported for corn.
Argentinian wheat that has been planted near the coast has been showing big yield numbers, and this is expected to offset some of the country’s losses in the northern region of Argentina.
Iraq reportedly has 2 mmt of wheat in reserve which is enough to cover the country’s requirements until next year’s harvest, but they will continue to offer contracts for imports.

Amanda Brill