TFM Morning Update 12-01-2023

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning to start the month with some pressure from the news that 221 contracts of December corn were delivered yesterday.
Brazilian weather started out the season hot and dry, but lately, they have received more consistent rains which has caused concerns for another large Brazilian crop.
Both domestic demand and export demand has been a bullish point, and corn used in ethanol production is now seen up 0.9% year over year to 452.7.
Weather in Argentina has significantly improved from last year, and corn plantings are now 32% complete from 26% the previous week.

Soybeans are lower this morning and have retreated to the bottom of their range mainly due to pressure from lower soybean meal. Soybean oil is slightly lower.
Argentina’s harvest is still a ways off but so far, it is looking good for soybeans which could take a significant chunk of soybean meal demand away from the U.S.
Although Brazilian weather has improved lately, some analysts are revising their production estimates lower. Consultancy Patria Agroegocios has lowered their estimate to 150.67 mmt from 154.10 mmt. This would be a 2.2% drop from last year.
The U.S. soybean crush likely jumped to a record 201.1 million bushels, while soybean oil stocks thinned for a sixth straight month.

All three wheat classes are lower this morning with risk off trade to start the month. March KC wheat failed again at the 20-day moving average.
More pressure came from 225 deliveries of Dec KC wheat and 1,752 deliveries of Dec Chicago wheat in the first two days of the delivery period.
Yesterday’s export sales report which showed 22.9 mb of sales for wheat last week was encouraging, and China was listed as a buyer.
In the U.S., 50% of the winter wheat crop is rated good to excellent which is the best start since 2019.

Amanda Brill