TFM Morning Update 12-01-2025

CORN

Corn futures have started the month of December slightly lower. December ’25 futures have slid 2-1/2 cents to $4.33. March ’25 futures are trading 2-1/4 cents lower at $4.45-1/2. December ’26 futures have lost 1-1/2 cents, now trading at $4.66-3/4.
The USDA reported U.S. corn export sales of 2.8 million tons for 2025–26 and another 571,500 tons for 2026–27 during the week ending October 16. Both figures topped expectations, as analysts in a Reuters poll had anticipated 1.4 to 2.5 million tons for 2025–26 and 500,000 to 1 million tons for 2026–27.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that exporters sold 273,988 metric tons of corn to unknown buyers for 2025–26 delivery. Analysts expect Monday’s USDA report to show weekly corn export sales of 1.1 to 2.5 million tons for the period ending October 23.

Soybean futures have started December slightly lower. January ’26 futures have shed 2-1/2 cents to trade at $11.35-1/4. March ’26 futures have lost 2-3/4 cents to trade at $11.43-1/4. November ’26 futures are trading 5-1/4 cents lower at $11.23-1/4.
China has resumed buying U.S. soybeans, wheat, and sorghum in the wake of the trade truce, but questions remain over whether it will reach the 12-million-metric-ton soybean purchase target referenced by some U.S. officials. Beijing has not publicly confirmed that goal.
The sluggish pace of purchases has fueled concerns that China may fall far short of the 12-million-ton target. This is a figure Beijing has never officially confirmed.

Wheat has started December in a mixed fashion. Chicago wheat is trading 4 cents higher at $5.35. Kansas City what has edged 1/4 cent higher to $5.18. Minn wheat is unchanged at $5.78.
In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange now expects the 2025/26 wheat harvest to reach a record 25.5 million tons, up from the earlier 24-million-ton estimate. The increase reflects stronger-than-anticipated yields as the harvest moves forward.
Australia is also expected to raise its wheat, barley, and canola production estimates this week, supported by well-timed pre-harvest rainfall in the south and stronger-than-expected yields in the west, according to an analyst survey.

Matthew Lucas