TFM Morning Update 12-02-2025

CORN

Corn futures have started the day quietly higher. December ’25 futures have gained 3/4 cent to $4.33-1/2. March ’26 futures have gained 1/2 cent to $4.45-1/2. December ’26 futures are trading 1/4 cent higher to $4.67-1/4.
Corn export inspections for the week came in at 1.421 million metric tons (56 million bushels), topping the high end of expectations. Cumulative inspections have now reached 747 million bushels, 71% higher than a year ago, putting corn exports on what could be a record-setting pace.
USDA released the delayed export sales report for the week ending October 23 as it works to catch up following the government shutdown. Corn export sales totaled 1.805 million metric tons (71.1 million bushels), putting this year’s pace nearly 400 million bushels ahead of last year.

Soybean futures have started Tuesday slightly higher. January ’26 futures have gained 5-3/4 cents to trade at $11.33-3/4. March ’26 futures have gained 5 cents to trade at $11.43. November ’26 futures are trading 1-1/4 cents higher at $11.26-1/4.
Chicago soybean futures have been stagnant as traders weigh the pace of U.S. soybean purchases by China following the late-October trade truce. After several confirmed sales since mid-November, the USDA reported no new soybean sales to China on Monday, prompting another phase of market skepticism.
Earlier worries about patchy rainfall in Brazil have eased, as heavy showers across central and northern growing regions have improved soil moisture. Weather in Argentina has also been generally favorable.

Wheat has started Tuesday in a mixed fashion. Chicago wheat is trading 3-1/2 cents lower at $5.31-1/2. Kansas City wheat has shed 4 cents to $5.22-3/4. Minn wheat has gained 2 cents to trade at $5.78.
Weekly wheat inspections reached 14.1 million bushels, bringing total 2025/26 inspections to 486 million, 20% higher than a year ago. The pace continues to run ahead of USDA’s expectations, with full-year exports projected at 900 million bushels, a 9% increase from last year.
In Australia, the government’s ABARES agency has raised its 2025/26 wheat production outlook by roughly 1.8 million tons, bringing the new forecast to 35.6 million tons.

Matthew Lucas