TFM Morning Update 12-03-2025

CORN

Corn futures are slightly lower to start the day, but have trended higher since the beginning of last week. December corn is down 1-1/2 cents to $4.36-1/2 while March is down 2-3/4 cents to $4.47-1/4.
The weekly EIA report saw ethanol production lower than last week at 1.089 million barrels per day which compared to 1,113m the previous week. Stockpiles were seen at 22.093m bbl compared to 21.968m a week ago.
According to the US Grains and Bioproducts Council, this season’s US corn crop is expected to be the largest on record at an estimated 425.53 million tons. Average yield is seen at 186 bpa. It was noted that the crop had the lowest rate of broken corn and foreign material in the report’s 15-year history.

Soybeans are mixed this morning with gains in the front months but slight losses in deferred months. January is up 1 cent to $11.25-3/4 while March is up 1/2 cent to $11.35-1/2. January soybean meal is up $0.50 to $312.10 and January soybean oil is down 0.21 cents to 52.47 cents.
An increasing number of US soybean shipments are heading to China and are expected to load through December. 6 bulk cargo vessels are scheduled to leave Gulf Coast terminals this month, and China may be on track to meet their 12 mmt purchasing commitment.
Earlier worries about patchy rainfall in Brazil have eased, as heavy showers across central and northern growing regions have improved soil moisture. Weather in Argentina has also been generally favorable.

Wheat is mixed this morning with December Chicago wheat down 2-1/4 cents to $5.38-3/4, KC wheat down 3 cents to $5.30, and Minn wheat up 1/2 cent to $5.81-1/4.
The crop survey for Canadian 2025 wheat production saw wheat production increasing by 5.7% from last year to 38 mmt. Estimates are between 36.8 and 38.9 mmt.
In Australia, the government’s ABARES agency has raised its 2025/26 wheat production outlook by roughly 1.8 million tons, bringing the new forecast to 35.6 million tons.

Amanda Brill