TFM Morning Update 12-04-2025

CORN

Corn futures have started the day mostly lower. March ’26 futures are 3/4 cent lower to $4.42-3/4. December ’26 futures are also 3/4 cent lower to $4.62-3/4.
Weekly EIA data showed U.S. ethanol production hit a record level in the week ending November 28, averaging 1.126 million barrels per day, up 13,000 barrels from the previous week.
Ethanol inventories expanded by 543,000 barrels, reaching 22.511 million. The week saw exports pick up by 48,000 bpd to 170,000 bpd, yet that gain was overshadowed by larger production volumes and a 28,000 bpd drop in refiner demand, which eased to 857,000 bpd.

Soybeans are offering small gains to begin Thursday. January ’26 futures are 3 cents higher to $11.18-3/4. November ’26 futures are 2-1/2 cents higher to $11.16-1/2.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday that China remains on pace to fulfill its Sino-U.S. trade deal commitments, including the purchase of 12 MMT of soybeans. He noted those soybean purchases should be completed by the end of February 2026.
The White House had previously suggested that China would secure the same volume by year-end, a far tighter deadline, but Beijing has yet to officially confirm either the target or the timing.

Wheat is mixed this morning with December Chicago wheat down 2-1/4 cents to $5.36, KC wheat down 1-3/4 cents to $5.27-3/4, and Minn wheat up 2 cents to $5.78.
Statistics Canada is set to release new estimates today, with expectations pointing to a 1.4-million-ton bump in domestic wheat production to roughly 38.5 million tons. That would mark an increase from last year’s crop, which came in just under 36 million tons.
SovEcon reports that Russian wheat export values have slipped about $4 since mid-November, landing near $228–$230 per ton. The drop may reflect pressure from Argentina, where a bumper harvest has pushed export offers down to roughly $208 per ton.

Matthew Lucas