TFM Morning Update 12-05-2023

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower this morning along with wheat, but yesterday corn followed wheat higher. Overall, large supplies are pressuring futures.
Yesterday’s export inspections report showed corn inspections totaling 45.6 mb for the week ending November 30 with total inspections at 332 mb, up 27% from the previous year.
Yesterday morning, Stats Canada revealed that their estimates of corn, wheat, and canola production were all higher than last month’s estimates and higher than trade estimates.
There have now been 532 deliveries against the December corn contract. This is partially due to large amounts of traffic and poor conditions through the Panama Canal.

Soybeans are trading slightly higher this morning after yesterday’s selloff as analysts in Brazil begin to estimate their production to be lower.
Soybean meal is slightly higher while soybean oil is slightly lower following a strong crush report last week. Crush margins remain profitable despite the recent selloff.
Brazilian soybean plantings are being reported as 85% complete which compares to 74% last week and 91% a year ago. Progress has improved with better weather forecasts.
Brazil is predicting that 4.2% of soybeans in its main growing state of Mato Grosso will need to be replanted, and production in the state has been estimated lower at 42.12 mmt from 43.78 mmt.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning after yesterday’s rally that was helped by an announced sale of wheat to China.
Yesterday’s wheat purchase by China of 440,000 metric tons was their largest purchase of US wheat since 2020 and may have caused funds to buy back some of their short positions.
Funds hold a very large net short position in wheat of over 120,000 contracts and so far Mar Chicago wheat has gained 62 cents off its low. This could cause that short position to get squeezed.
The outlook for Australia’s wheat production has improved slightly but heavy rains in the forecast may threaten the quality of unharvested crops making them feed grain quality.

Amanda Brill