TFM Morning Update 12-05-2024

CORN

Corn futures are trading slightly lower this morning, and overnight, March futures drifted down to the 100-day moving average before recovering slightly. This would be the third consecutive day of losses.
Yesterday’s ethanol report showed production falling to 1.073 million barrels per day which was below the average trade estimate. Ethanol stocks rose by 0.6% to 23.003m bbl which was also below analyst estimates.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn exports in a range between 800k and 1,550k tons with an average guess of 1,165k tons. This would compare with 1,130k last week and 1,312k a year ago.

Soybean futures are bull spread with gains in the front months and slight losses in the deferred months. Prices have retreated about 5 cents from their overnight highs. Soybean oil is slightly lower while soybean oil is higher.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean exports in a range between 1,500k tons and 2,400k tons. The average guess if 1,960k tons which would compare to 2,508k last week and 1,404k last year at this time.
In November, Malaysian palm oil inventories fell by 4.3% to 1.8 million tons, and crude palm oil production fell by 5.6% to 1.7 million tons. This has been supportive to palm oil prices, but soybean oil has been following those moves less closely.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with Minneapolis wheat leading the way higher. Yesterday, March Chicago wheat made a new contract low and then recovered to close higher. That action with today’s move higher could signal a bottom.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 300k and 600k tons with an average guess of 425k tons. This would compare with 367k last week and 347k tons a year ago.
Russia is expected to lower its wheat exports by a larger number than usual as a result of a smaller than expected crop. Officials have approved a wheat export quota of 11 million tons for the second half of the season from Feb 15 to June 30.

Amanda Brill