TFM Morning Update 12-05-2025

CORN

Corn futures have started the day lower across the board. March ’26 futures are 1-1/4 cents lower to $4.46. December ’26 futures are 3/4 cent lower to $4.64.
As of October 30, corn export sales are running at a record pace, 31% ahead of last year’s already strong start. With bookings now covering 48% of USDA’s 3.075-billion-bushel target, the export program is well ahead for this point in the marketing year.
A burst of cold weather across the U.S. Midwest has slowed grain movement, especially along river systems feeding Gulf export terminals, tightening logistics just enough to lend support to cash markets.

Soybeans have inched slightly lower in early Friday trade. January ’26 futures are 3-1/4 cents lower to $11.16-1/4. November ’26 futures are 2-1/4 cents lower to $11.12-1/2.
Soybean export sales for the week ending October 30 totaled 46 million bushels, leaving cumulative sales 38% behind last year’s pace. The report also confirmed China’s first purchase of the season at 232,000 metric tons. With shipments running 39% below a year ago, traders expect the USDA to trim its export forecast in next week’s WASDE.
Overall Chinese soybean purchases remain far short of the 12-million-ton target cited by U.S. officials, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pushed the expected deadline back, shifting the timeline from year-end to the end of February.

Wheat is mixed this morning with March Chicago wheat down 3-1/4 cents to $5.37, KC wheat down 1-1/2 cents to $5.32-1/2, and Minn wheat up 1 cent to $5.74.
Grain markets are increasingly focused on next Tuesday’s USDA supply and demand report, while traders also await Friday’s U.S. inflation data for clues on whether an interest rate cut could be on the table next week.
Statistics Canada surprised to the high side, pegging total wheat production at nearly 40 million tons versus trade expectations of 38.5 million. The new figure comes in 11% above last year’s record crop and comfortably exceeds industry estimates. Spring wheat output is projected at 29.26 MMT, marking roughly a 10% increase from the previous year’s harvest.

Matthew Lucas