TFM Morning Update 12-06-2023

CORN

Corn is trading higher again this morning and is on track for a sixth consecutively higher close if prices remain here. Funds hold a large net short position and may be buying contracts back.
Brazil previously took the U.S.’s spot as the number one exporter of corn, but now it is expected to slip back to second place thanks to a smaller winter corn crop.
On Friday, the USDA will release their WASDE report and reveal the changes, if any, to the carryout which is already expected to be over 2.1 billion bushels.
Some private analysts are expecting that Brazil’s corn production will fall between 10 and 15% due to the likelihood of a delayed soybean harvest.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning following the recent selloff and are hovering just above support at the 200-day moving average.
Higher soybean meal is supporting soybeans again today while soybean oil trades slightly lower.
Crush margins have improved based on futures this week and remain profitable and an incentive for processors. Margins have slipped a bit overall in the past few months.
Biodiesel use in Indonesia is expected to hit 13.4m kiloliters in 2024 thanks to a mandate that requires biodiesel to contain 35% palm oil.

Wheat futures are trading higher again today for what would be the seventh consecutively higher close. March futures have risen above the 100-day moving average for the first time since August.
In Australia, November rainfall totals were 37.8% higher than the 30-year average following a dry stretch, but this influx of rain has damaged the wheat crop and the country is now expecting 37% less than last year.
Ukrainian grain exports are down so far for the 23/24 marketing year at just 13.7 mmt. In November, it exported 1.3 million tons of wheat.
The recent gains in all three wheat classes are likely causing a large amount of short covering by funds and this is a pattern that could continue.

Amanda Brill