TFM Morning Update 12-11-2023

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower this morning with prices remaining rangebound following Friday’s unsurprising WASDE report.
In the report, the USDA kept their expectations for Brazilian production unchanged at 129.0 mmt which is above CONAB’s estimate of 118.5 mmt.
Brazilian corn is reportedly 40% planted with only 2% of the crop receiving a poor to very poor rating. Light rains are expected to be followed by heavier amounts later this week in central Brazil.
Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials buying back 45,945 contracts of corn which reduced their net short position to 160,533 contracts.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning but remain on the low end of their current trading range. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher this morning.
In Friday’s WASDE report, the USDA made almost no changes to soybeans and kept U.S. ending stocks the same at 245 mb which is the lowest in eight years. Brazilian production was lowered from 163 mmt to 161 mmt.
Argentina’s production was unchanged at 48.0 mmt, and their crop is reportedly 52% planted with only 2% rated poor to very poor.
Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials exiting 30,929 contracts which reduced their net long position to just 36,663 contracts.

Wheat is trading lower this morning but remains in an uptrend with prices hugging just below the 100-day moving average. Renewed buying interest from China has been supportive.
Last week, China purchased 41.2 mb of soft red winter wheat from the U.S. which put total purchases above 80 mb, more than China purchased last year.
Ukraine is expecting to harvest a record 59.7 mmt of grain with wheat making up 22.2 mmt. The ongoing struggle will be safely exporting their grain.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back 23,764 contracts of wheat which brought their net short position to 96,222 contracts.

Amanda Brill