TFM Morning Update 12-11-2024

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning after yesterday’s supportive WASDE report. March corn is within a penny this morning of where the corn rally ran out of gas in early October. A close above $4.50 would look technically supportive to a continued move higher.
The demand side of the US corn balance sheet exceeded expectations on the December WASDE report. The USDA raised their export estimate by 150 mb and ethanol use by 50 mb. Total corn usage for the 24/25 marketing year is now estimated at 15.19 bb, a record by 221 mb if realized.
World corn ending stocks on yesterday’s report came in at 296.44 mmt, just slightly above 20/21 for the lowest ending stocks number in the last decade as corn demand continues to impress at these lower prices.

Soybeans are continuing their grind sideways this morning after an uneventful USDA report yesterday. January soybeans over the last 12 trading sessions have settled within a 15 cent range between $9.80 and $9.95.
Unlike corn, the entire US soybean balance sheet was left unchanged from last month in the December WASDE report. A small increase to Argentina’s production estimate and no change to Brazil’s estimate was seen as a small win for soybeans.
Focus for the soybean market post WASDE report will shift back to South American weather as we are into a critical time-frame for soybean production in both Brazil and Argentina. Over the next week the forecast for most of Brazil looks to continue favorable while dryness in Argentina may start to expand as showers become more spotty and less widespread than recently.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning as prices continue to recover from their recent contract lows.
Yesterday’s WASDE brought a slightly friendly surprise to wheat with a 20 mb drop in US ending stocks, now down to 795 mb on higher exports.
March KC wheat futures have managed to close higher in six consecutive sessions but now are staring down the barrel of the 100 and 50-day moving averages just above the market.

Keegan Madigan