TFM Morning Update 12-12-2023

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher this morning but remains in a very tight trading range. Brazil is expecting lighter rains over the next few days which could add some weather premium.
Today the Federal Reserve will begin its two-day meeting in which it will decide on what to do with interest rates. Expectations are that rates will end up unchanged.
Scattered showers are forecast in South America through the 19th when heavier rains should pick back up, but the next 7 days should give southern Brazil which is too wet a break from more moisture.
Shipments of U.S. corn are 30% higher than last year’s pace with over half of the total shipments to Mexico, and U.S. corn remains the cheapest option.

Soybeans are trading slightly higher this morning after big gains yesterday that saw a 32-cent jump in January soybean prices. Both soybean meal and oil are higher as well.
A short-term hot and dry forecast in Brazil has lent some support to both corn and soybeans, but conditions are expected to turn favorable again in 7 days.
Soybean planting in Brazil is 91% complete as of December 7 which compares with 85% the previous week and 95% a year earlier.
Stockpiles of Malaysian palm oil fell last month for the first time since April on lower output. The decrease in production was larger than the decline in exports.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning after yesterday’s selloff that was likely caused by fund selling. Purchases from China last week caused short covering.
The Russian government has banned durum wheat exports until May 31st in order to stabilize prices domestically, but this may indicate that they are beginning to run low on supplies.
Winter wheat conditions in the U.S. are mostly in better shape than last year with the good to excellent rating at 39%, but last week that rating rose by 8 points.
In France, soft wheat plantings for the 2024 year fell by 5% with producers only planting 6.4m hectares of winter grains for the upcoming harvest.

Amanda Brill