TFM Morning Update 12-13-2023

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning giving back most of the gains posted yesterday.
Today’s EIA ethanol report is expected to show ethanol production backing off from last week’s 5 month high, with ethanol stocks growing slightly week over week.
The Biden Administration is expected to announce this week guidance on whether corn-based sustainable aviation fuel will qualify for government subsidies.
Brazil’s Agrivest says purchases of fertilizer and corn seed are down 18-20% compared to a year ago as farmers eye second crop corn planting in early 2024.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning as heavier rain totals are forecast in the driest regions of Brazil starting late next week through January.
Weather conditions look to remain mostly favorable for Argentina over the next two weeks continuing to support early crop development.
Newly elect Argentine President Milei is expected to announce this week many of his reforms which could have an impact on global soybean meal trade given Argentina’s large impact in that market.
Brazil’s ABIOVE lowered their Brazilian soybean production forecast to 161.9 million tons this week, down 2.8 million tons from their previous estimate, but above the USDA’s December estimate of 161 million tons.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning after yesterday’s rally.
Argus said this week that Ukraine’s wheat production could be a 12-year low in 2024 due to lower planted area.
EU soft red wheat exports through December 10 were estimated at 13.61 million tons compared to 15.85 million a year ago.
A low pressure system is expected to move slowly across much of the US central plains this week bringing welcome moisture.

Keegan Madigan