TFM Morning Update 12-15-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading mixed to slightly lower to begin the week. March ’26 futures are 1/2 cent lower at $4.40-1/2. December ’26 futures are unchanged at $4.62.
Strong corn exports continue to underpin futures, highlighted by two consecutive flash sales last week that reinforced the supportive demand tone.
The U.S. dollar has weakened sharply following the Fed’s rate cut, and any further softness would likely provide added support to export demand.

Soybean futures are mixed, but mostly lower to begin the week. January ’26 futures are 1 cent higher at $10.77-3/4. March ’26 futures are 1/4 cent lower at $10.86-1/2. November ’26 futures are 1/2 cent lower at $10.87-3/4.
U.S. soybean shipments to China are picking up, and Sinograin is clearing space for arrivals, but purchases remain well short of the 12 million tons U.S. officials said China would buy by year-end.
U.S. exports remain well behind last year’s pace, with traders expecting further slowing as Brazil begins harvesting a likely record crop.

Chicago and Kansas City wheat have both started the week lower, while MIAX wheat is unchanged. March ’26 Chicago futures are 3-1/2 cents lower at $5.25-3/4. Kansas City is 3-1/4 cents lower at $5.14-1/2. MIAX wheat is unchanged at $5.76.
Argentina is harvesting a record wheat crop and has begun loading its first bulk shipment to China, opening a new export route between the two countries, according to COFCO International.
China’s statistics bureau said total 2025 grain production rose 1.2% year over year to 714.9 mmt, while the wheat crop was unchanged at 140.1 mmt, in line with the USDA.

Matthew Lucas