TFM Morning Update 12-17-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading slightly higher to begin Wednesday. March ’26 futures are 1-1/4 cents higher at $4.37-3/4. December ’26 futures are unchanged at $4.59-1/2.
As the calendar turns toward 2026, South American weather comes into sharper focus. Brazil remains generally favorable for now, but longer-range forecasts point to drier risks in Argentina
Brent crude fell below $60 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time since May, adding downside pressure to biofuel prices and the feedstocks used in their production.

Soybean futures have started the day with small losses on the front end of the curve, and gains on deferred months. January ’26 futures are 1 cent lower at $10.61-1/2. March ’26 futures are 1/2 cent lower at $10.71-1/4. November ’26 futures are 1 cent higher at $10.81-1/4.
Soybeans remain under pressure amid concerns over weak U.S. export demand and expectations for a bumper Brazilian harvest, with traders disappointed by the slow pace of Chinese buying following recent trade talks between Washington and Beijing.
November NOPA U.S. soybean crush slipped to 216.04 million bushels after October’s record 227.6 million. While down 5.1% month over month, crush was still up 11.8% from a year ago. Prices are dependent on strong domestic demand as export demand continues to be stagnant.

Wheat futures have started the day in a mixed fashion. March ’26 Chicago futures are 1/4 cent lower at $5.09-1/4. Kansas City is 1/4 cent lower at $5.09-1/4. MIAX wheat has gained 1 cent, now trading at $5.66.
Daily stochastics show all three U.S. wheat classes are technically oversold, and with managed funds likely net short, the market is vulnerable to a bounce. A sustained rally will likely require fresh friendly news.
France’s farm ministry said winter soft wheat plantings for next year’s harvest are expected to rise 2.3% from 2025 to 4.56 million hectares, though the area would still sit slightly below the five-year average.

Matthew Lucas