TFM Morning Update 12-18-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading slightly higher to begin Thursday. March ’26 futures are 2-1/4 cents higher at $4.42-3/4. December ’26 futures are 1 cent higher at $4.61-1/2.
EIA data Wednesday morning showed another record ethanol grind for the week ending December 12, with production rising 26,000 bpd to 1.131 million bpd. Despite the higher output, ethanol stocks declined by 157,000 barrels to 22.353 million.
That strength was driven by a 66,000 bpd jump in ethanol exports to 191,000 bpd, alongside higher refiner inputs, which rose 55,000 bpd week over week to 906,000 bpd.

Soybean futures have started the day with small gains across the board. January ’26 futures are 1/2 cent higher at $10.58-3/4. March ’26 futures are 1 cent higher at $10.70. November ’26 futures are 1/4 cent higher at $10.75-1/4.
Export sales have stayed active, with private exporters reporting 198,000 mt of soybeans sold to China and another 125,000 mt to unknown destinations for 2025/26. Flash sales have surfaced nearly every day over the past week, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent now expects China to meet its 12 mmt purchase commitment by the end of February.
China’s state stockpiler Sinograin sold 323,000 metric tons, about 63% of the soybeans offered, at Tuesday’s auction at roughly $547/mt, helping clear inventories and potentially opening the door for additional U.S. soybean purchases.

Wheat futures have started the day higher. March ’26 Chicago futures are 1/2 cent higher at $5.06-3/4. Kansas City is 2-1/4 cents higher at $5.10. MIAX wheat has gained 2 cents, now trading at $5.64.
Wheat futures are hovering near their lowest levels since October 22, weighed down by ample global supply prospects and growing expectations of a ceasefire in Ukraine.
In its December WASDE, the U.S. Department of Agriculture projected global wheat supplies up 7.5 million tons to 1,097.8 million, driven by higher production across several major exporters.

Matthew Lucas