TFM Morning Update 12-19-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading slightly lower to begin Friday. March ’26 futures are 1 cent lower at $4.43-3/4. December ’26 futures are 3/4 cent lower at $4.61-1/2.
Export sales data updated yesterday morning showed 1.792 MMT of corn sold in the week ending 11/27, landing on the high end of trade expectations (1–2 MMT). While this marked a three-week low, sales still ran 3.5% above the same week last year.
A record-sized harvest has kept U.S. corn competitively priced on the global market, while at home, record ethanol production continues to provide solid demand support.

Soybean futures have started the day with small losses across the board. January ’26 futures are 2 cents lower at $10.50-1/4. March ’26 futures are 1-3/4 cents lower at $10.60-1/4. November ’26 futures are 3-1/2 cents lower at $10.67-1/2.
Soybean prices continue to face pressure as the market remains skeptical that China will ultimately fulfill its purchase commitments.
Bloomberg reports China has purchased about 6 mmt of soybeans, roughly half of its 12 mmt commitment. While meeting the full target by year-end appears unlikely, the current pace suggests the commitment could be completed by the end of the marketing year, or sooner.

Wheat futures have started the day mostly lower. March ’26 Chicago futures are 1-1/4 cents lower at $5.06-1/2. Kansas City is 1-1/4 cents lower at $5.15-3/4. MIAX wheat has gained 2 cents, now trading at $5.75.
Large wheat harvests in Argentina and Australia continue to add fresh supply to the global market, while top exporter Russia is already projecting a bumper 90 million metric ton crop next year, keeping pressure on prices.
COFCO International said Saturday it loaded its first bulk shipment of Argentine wheat to China, opening a new trade route with Argentina and adding pressure to wheat prices.

Matthew Lucas