TFM Morning Update 12-20-2023

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher this morning as markets attempt to shake off some of yesterday’s losses. So far, prices are still rangebound, but March corn did have its lowest close of the year yesterday.
Projections for the weekly ethanol output and stockpile report see production lower than last week at 1.067m b/d with stockpiles estimated at 22.098 m bbl, slightly lower than last week.
Brazil has overtaken the US as China’s primary corn supplier and has maintained the top spot for soybeans. Out of the 22.18 mmt of corn imported by China, 40% was shipped from Brazil and 29% was from the US.
Ever in an effort to diversify their imports, China has given Russia the right to supply corn from all of its regions. The US still has the competitive advantage globally.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning with the majority of gains in the two front months while deferred contracts are only slightly higher.
Both soybean meal and oil are slightly higher as well, but the overall trend has been lower as trade prepares for the Argentinian soy harvest and the large number of soy products that will be exported from the country.
Scattered showers continue to fall in central and northern Brazil this morning and the overall forecast looks much better for January.
Due to the heat and drought early in the season, Brazil’s largest soybean growing state, Mato Grosso, is expected to produce 20% fewer soybeans in 2024 with estimates at 36.15 mmt.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning but held their own yesterday while corn and soybeans were down significantly.
March soybeans have been consolidating at the 100-day moving average and have also formed a bull pennant. Friendly news like a new Chinese sale could cause wheat to break out higher.
The European Union’s soft wheat exports have dropped by 16% year over year in the season through December 17 as the world continues to look to Russia for their needs.
Private analyst APK-Inform has increased their estimates for the 23/24 Ukrainian grain harvest to 56.3 mmt from previous estimates of 54.7 mmt. Wheat production is called at 21.5 mmt.

Amanda Brill