TFM Morning Update 12-26-2025

CORN

Grains will resume trading this morning at 8:30am following Christmas, but on Wednesday, March corn gained 3 cents to $4.50-1/2 while May gained 3 cents to $4.58-1/2. Support has come from strong export sales.
Strong demand has kept corn prices supported with export demand good and commitments up 31% from this time last year and recent inspections 68% ahead of last year. The Hogs and Pigs report saw a larger hog herd which could point to increased feed demand.
South American weather has been excellent this season with plenty of rain in Brazil and the only potential issue being too much moisture in certain areas. In Argentina, a front is set to move through this weekend improving conditions further.

Soybeans closed higher on Christmas eve with January posting a gain of 11-1/4 cents to $10.62-3/4 while March gained 12 cents to $10.75-3/4. January soybean meal gained $3.60 to $304.70 and January soybean oil gained 0.74 cents to 49.04 cents.
As in corn, the recent bottoming in soybean prices have been due in large part to positive export sales. Export data from earlier in the month has showed that China has stepped up as the top buyer once again and has made purchases nearly every day.
As of the December 16 CFTC report, funds held a net long position of 148,768 contracts. Futures have sold off since then, so that position is likely now smaller, but is probably still a net long position.

Wheat ended the day higher as well on Wednesday with March Chicago wheat up 5-1/2 cents to $5.22-1/2, KC up 6 cents to $5.34, and Minneapolis unchanged at $5.80-1/4. All three classes have carved out a nice bottom after becoming oversold.
Despite macro events such as an increase in Russia’s wheat export quota by nearly double to 20 mmt in February and Argentina’s record setting crop that is 85% harvested, low prices and strength in corn and soybeans have given wheat prices a boost.
Overnight, Russia dropped bombs again on Ukrainian ports. The ones targeted this time were Odesa and Mykolaiv. Peace talks are seeming much further away, and the damage to ports could impact Ukrainian grain exports.

Amanda Brill